Tuesday, April 20, 2010

China's Real Estate Bubble is a sign of MAJOR economic problem

A quick comparison between China's real estate bubble and the American real estate bubble of 1998-2005 shows that China's bubble is growing at TWICE the rate of the American bubble. During the bubble, the average price index of the American home grow by about 80 percent in 7 years. China managed to do 60% real estate price increase in just THREE years, and it is STILL going up.

You can see the details at http://randomrantsbykc.blogspot.com/2010/04/rant-chinas-real-estate-prices-worse.html

And the Chinese government is FINALLY taking notice. They are cracking down on special promotions and such prohibiting "advance sales" on properties not even finished yet. This is causing a huge CRASH as all the various real-estate holders dumping their inventory on the market. And who will lose most of the money? Those who already own their houses and cannot sell, but have taken out loans on them for other uses.

Not all "experts" are convinced. Some claim that China has already clamped down on bank lending, thus the money supply is tighter. What those American analysts are NOT realizing is most Chinese do NOT borrow from banks, but instead from friends and relatives. So the actual number cannot be measured through bank lending.

And people are noticing all around the world, even CNN Money. And when the real estate bubble actually crash (more than twice as hard?) it will destroy the the mirage of "leader in economic recovery" that China is sprouting, and hold back the "real" global economic recovery that everybody is eager to enjoy.


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